Population Forecasts 2023–2043

Local population forecasts 2023-2043

Population forecasts offer an approximation of the present and anticipated population. This information is essential for planning service provision that reflects the demographics and needs of the population. The Power BI Dashboard below provides detailed population forecasts for Milton Keynes City that have been developed locally. No forecast can be expected to be 100% accurate, however, these forecasts use additional local information that builds on ONS projection assumptions to deliver forecasts that are more likely to reflect future population change. More information on why these forecasts have been developed can be found here.

Population Forecast Dashboard

Download the data

The base data used to create the Dashboard can be downloaded below.

How to use the Dashboard

The video below will take you through the features and functions of the Dashboard and how to use them.

In addition, you can:

• Navigate around the pages in the Dashboard by clicking on the contents hotlinks or the page number at the bottom of the screen, which reveals the page menu or by clicking on the arrows
• Display the Dashboard in full screen mode by clicking the expansion arrows in the bottom right corner

The need for local forecasts

The Office for National Statistics (ONS) regularly produces sub-national population projections down to a local authority level. The 2018 mid-year population estimates, which were derived from the 2011 Census data, served as the foundation for the most recent projections. It is always to be expected that population estimates are not entirely correct. But the results of the more recent Census, which took place in 2021, showed that the most recent estimates were significantly off. The 2021 Census will serve as the new basis for the ONS sub-national projections, which are not expected to be published until 2025.

Furthermore, the ONS projects are “demographic-led,” meaning that population change is only estimated using changes in the population brought about by migration, births, and deaths. Significantly, this implies that adjustments to the housing stock, such as those resulting from the construction of new homes, are not taken into consideration.

As a result, it was determined that the local authority needed more precise population forecasts that took into account local housing growth plans and current demographic data. For example, the Health Services Strategy, which will establish the plans for health services over the next 20 years, depends on this information in order to evaluate the expected growth in need and demand for services, both within the council and in the larger ICS.

Update: PowerBi Dashboard Error on Slide 10 Corrected

Date: 7-10-’24

We have identified and corrected an error on slide 10 of the local population forecasts 2023-2043 dashboard. The issue has been resolved, and the dashboard is now fully functional. Should you encounter any further issues, please feel free to reach out to us.

Thank you for your patience and support.